Top contenders for papacy after Francis

(OSV News) -- At the conclusion of the official days of mourning following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 135 cardinal electors are eligible to enter pre-conclave gatherings.

There were very few gatherings of the college of cardinals during the pontificate of Pope Francis -- which had become increasingly commonplace in the pontificates since the Second Vatican Council -- and so there is a sense the cardinals know each other even less than in recent conclaves.

Over 100 of the members of the college were appointed by the man whose successor they will choose.

Of the 135 cardinals currently eligible to vote, 53 come from Europe, 16 of them from Italy. Asia accounts for 23 voters, Latin America (including Mexico) 21, Africa 18, North America 16 and Oceania four.

With representation from more than five dozen countries, the college of cardinals currently has the most global composition than ever before, although nearly 30 of the cardinal-electors alone are serving in the Roman Curia. This is also the first conclave in which all the electors will have been ordained priests after the conclusion of Vatican II.

The old saying goes that he who goes into the conclave as pope leaves as a cardinal. However, the pre-conclave gatherings give an opportunity for cardinals to emerge as possible papal candidates as the cardinals discuss the issues facing the church and qualities desired in the next pope. The following figures are potential contenders to become the 266th successor of St. Peter.

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline
Currently the lone residential cardinal-archbishop in mainland France, Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, was reportedly very close to Pope Francis. While Francis has made it a priority to visit smaller, marginalized European countries during his pontificate, Cardinal Aveline was instrumental in securing a papal trip to his Marseille see city in 2023. An impressive scholar and academic, Cardinal Aveline has degrees from two of Paris' most prestigious universities, the historic Sorbonne and the pontifical Institut Catholique de Paris. Ordained a priest for Marseille in 1984 and named an auxiliary bishop there in 2014, Cardinal Aveline was appointed archbishop of his own diocese in 2019. While Cardinal Aveline's priorities match up with many of Pope Francis' own -- especially concerning migration, synodality and decentralization of the church -- Cardinal Aveline is regarded as one who puts a major emphasis on building up communion and fostering unity. This can be seen in his work facilitating interreligious dialogue or even sympathetic accompaniment of traditional Latin Mass adherents after the restrictions levied by Pope Francis in 2021.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu
Statistics show that the growth and future of Catholicism resides in Africa. And, if the cardinal-electors are looking for a papal candidate who embodies the gifts of African Catholicism, Capuchin Franciscan Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, is a likely choice. Appointed archbishop of Democratic Republic of Congo's archdiocese of Kinshasa in 2018, Cardinal Ambongo Besungu has served on the papal advisory Council of Cardinals since 2020. The cardinal also brokered an agreement with the Holy See on behalf of Africa's bishops, in his capacity as president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, after the public disagreements following release of the Dicastery for the Doctrine on the Faith's 2023 decree "Fiducia Supplicans" ("Supplicating Trust"), regarding blessings for same-sex couples.

Cardinal Anders Arborelius
Since his elevation, Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius, 75, a Carmelite, has often been lauded for his level-headedness and is liked by both conservatives and progressives in his country. Back in 2017, Pope Francis made a surprise announcement that he would elevate five bishops to the cardinalate, including the bishop of Stockholm, a first for Sweden and Scandinavia. With Catholics accounting for roughly 1.5% of the Swedish population, the pope made clear his desire to highlight his closeness to the Catholic Church in the periphery. In 1971 he entered the Order of the Discalced Carmelite Fathers in Norraby, and gave his perpetual vows in Bruges, Belgium, in 1977. He studied philosophy, theology and modern languages in Belgium, Sweden and Rome. From 2005 to 2015 he was president of the Episcopal Conference of Scandinavia."I was very stupefied, and of course, it's always a bit annoying when they start" speculating, Cardinal Arborelius told OSV News Sept. 6, 2024, via video call. "Here in Sweden, people always love (saying), 'Oh, you're the next pope.' So it's a bit annoying but I tried to calm them down in a sense because it's part of the business that people speculate about that."

Cardinal Charles Maung Bo
Ordained to the priesthood of the Salesians of St. John Bosco in 1976, Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, 76, has been archbishop of Yangon, Myanmar, for over two decades. Created a cardinal by Pope Francis in the consistory of February 2015, he has the title of Sant'Ireneo a Centocelle (St. Irenaeus at Centocelle). An outspoken critic of the actions of the military junta and advocate for the persecuted Catholics of Myanmar, he welcomed Pope Francis for a highly reported visit in the country in November 2017. The cardinal, who served as the leader of Asia's bishops for two terms, in a conversation with Vatican News recalled Pope Francis' "profound affection" for the people of Asia and his "love for" the suffering people of Myanmar.

Cardinal Péter Erdo
Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, of Hungary appears the most likely papal candidate among those named a cardinal in the pontificate of St. John Paul II. Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and primate of Hungary since 2003, Cardinal Erdo served as general relator at the twin synods of bishops on the family in 2014 and 2015. With double doctorates in theology and canon law, Cardinal Erdo served as professor and administrator in seminaries for over two decades, until his appointment as bishop in 1999. From 2006 to 2016, Cardinal Erdo served as president of the Council of the Bishops' Conferences of Europe. He hosted the 2021 International Eucharistic Congress in Budapest.

Cardinal Willem Eijk
A medical doctor before entering the seminary, Cardinal Willem EIjk, 71, has been archbishop of Utrecht, Netherlands, since 2007. Cardinal Eijk relied on his medical background as he obtained a doctorate in theology with a focus on medical ethics. And he also has been able to help diagnose what ails Western society amid increasing secularization, especially as seen in his native country. As the church's institutional footprint continues to shrink in the West, Cardinal Eijk had provided commonsense pastoral solutions. Known for his defense of church teaching on various hot topics, Cardinal Eijk in 2022 requested that Pope Francis write an encyclical on gender theory.

Cardinal Dominique Mamberti
Moroccan-born French native Cardinal Dominique Mamberti, 73, has served as prefect of the Holy See's Signatura, or Supreme Tribunal of the Apostolic Signature, since 2014. From 2006 to 2014, Cardinal Mamberti served as the Holy See's secretary for relations with states as as de facto foreign minister for the Vatican. After studying civil and canon law, Cardinal Mamberti spent much of his time as a priest and bishop as a career diplomat. His broad experience in international relations is widely respected, as is his work in articulating the relationship between religious liberty and human rights. His skills may not only be helpful amid rising global conflicts, but also as a bridge-builder in an increasingly divided church.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin
The front-runner among papal candidates currently serving in the Roman Curia would be Italian native Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, who has served as the Holy See's secretary of state since 2013. Since age 31, he has spent his ministry as priest and bishop in the service of the Vatican's diplomatic corps. His tenure as secretary of state was seen widely as a moderating force during the Francis pontificate. His close ties to some of the more contentious hallmarks of Pope Francis' pontificate, particularly his role in a London real estate scandal and the Holy See's agreement with China, seen as a controversial chapter of Pope Francis' pontificate, could weigh against his potential candidacy.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Italian native and Franciscan Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, was appointed Latin patriarch of Jerusalem in 2020. He has spent a quarter of a century ministering in the Holy Land, including in a mix of academic and pastoral work. As the Israeli-Hamas war unfolded in 2023, then-Archbishop Pizzaballa was named a cardinal, and made news shortly thereafter when he offered himself up to Hamas in exchange for the release of abducted children. His elevation was evidence of great respect in Rome for his diplomatic tact, which could also mean the cardinal-electors might see the "right stuff" in him as divisions in the world and in the church continue to widen. Raised in Castel Liteggio, Northern Italy's Lombardy, his childhood was marked by a simple country life, as he recalled during his episcopal ordination in 2016. Jerusalem gave him a rousing send-off prior to leaving the city for the conclave, and in a video recorded before heading to Rome, Cardinal Pizzaballa said: "It's a moment when we need to be united in prayer."

Cardinal Marcello Semeraro
Cardinal Marcello Semeraro, 77, a one-time professor of ecclesiology, served as a diocesan bishop in Italy until his appointment to the Roman Curia in 2020. Cardinal Semeraro was appointed secretary of the Council of Cardinals in 2020, an advisory body that Pope Francis established very early in his pontificate. Since 2020, Cardinal Semeraro has been prefect of the Dicastery for the Causes of Saints, taking the place of embattled, and now-convicted, Cardinal Angelo Becciu. A combination of Cardinal Semeraro's age, his longtime pastoral experience and his inside knowledge of Vatican operations under Pope Francis could make him an appealing candidate as a "transitional" pope.

Cardinal Lazzaro You Heung-sik
As the church continues to face the need for further reforms of the priesthood -- particularly in the wake of the clergy sexual abuse crisis and as vocations continue to decline -- the prelate who has served since 2021 as the prefect of the Dicastery for Clergy could surface as a papal contender. Cardinal Lazzaro You Heung-sik, 73, archbishop-bishop emeritus of Daejeon, and a native of South Korea, converted to Catholicism as a teenager and was baptized at age 16 -- inspired by the enduring witness of St. Andrew Kim Taegon and companion Korean martyrs. Attuned to the pernicious effects of clericalism, owed to his experience of the church in Korea and his involvement in the ecclesial movement Focolare, Cardinal You Heung-sik has high regard for the role of the laity in ecclesial life.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
President of the Italian Episcopal Conference since 2022 and archbishop of Bologna since 2015, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, has been regarded as particularly close to Pope Francis. A protege of Archbishop Vincenzo Paglia, president of the Pontifical Academy for Life, Cardinal Zuppi has a longtime affiliation with the Community of Sant'Egidio, an ecclesial movement dedicated to promoting peace and ecumenism. Cardinal Zuppi has been known to celebrate the Tridentine Mass and also contributed to working on relations with LGBTQ+ Catholics. Since 2023, Cardinal Zuppi has been Pope Francis' personal delegate to promote peace amid the Russia-Ukraine war. 'It is primarily about looking for the best ways to promote peace, and first of all it has a humanitarian dimension. We are particularly mindful of children, especially those uprooted from their family environment," Cardinal Zuppi told OSV News Feb. 5, 2024.